Minority Report

San Jose, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Santa Clara County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 75°   Low 50°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 22 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 22% against a group average of 6%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—52°22%
US model (GFS)75°49°2%
European model (ECMWF)73°54°1%
German model (ICON)76°50°0%
Canadian model (GEM)76°44°3%
The average75°50°6%

Friday, November 13

High 61°   Low 50°   Rain 99%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°45°97%
US model (GFS)60°53°97%
European model (ECMWF)60°52°100%
German model (ICON)62°52°100%
Canadian model (GEM)60°48°100%
The average61°50°99%

Saturday, November 14

High 65°   Low 47°   Rain 17%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 33 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 17%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°45°11%
US model (GFS)66°52°24%
European model (ECMWF)64°46°18%
German model (ICON)66°48°0%
Canadian model (GEM)62°45°33%
The average65°47°17%

Sunday, November 15

High 64°   Low 49°   Rain 90%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°47°91%
US model (GFS)65°54°83%
European model (ECMWF)64°49°89%
German model (ICON)62°51°98%
Canadian model (GEM)62°46°90%
The average64°49°90%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.