Minority Report

San Luis, CO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Costilla County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 54°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°0%
US model (GFS)57°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°29°0%
German model (ICON)55°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°32°0%
The average54°30°0%

Friday, November 13

High 53°   Low 32°   Rain 17%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 81 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 81% against a group average of 17%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°33°81%
US model (GFS)55°34°1%
European model (ECMWF)52°31°0%
German model (ICON)53°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°34°5%
The average53°32°17%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 32°   Rain 80%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 34 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 97% against a group average of 80%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°29°85%
US model (GFS)43°31°75%
European model (ECMWF)42°35°97%
German model (ICON)45°34°63%
Canadian model (GEM)43°33°80%
The average44°32°80%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 29°   Rain 17%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 28 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 17%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°28°0%
US model (GFS)46°29°13%
European model (ECMWF)46°32°28%
German model (ICON)48°31°20%
Canadian model (GEM)44°28°22%
The average46°29°17%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.