Minority Report

San Luis Obispo, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of San Luis Obispo County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 68°   Low 56°   Rain 24%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 42 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 49% against a group average of 24%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—57°49%
US model (GFS)68°55°7%
European model (ECMWF)67°55°30%
German model (ICON)69°58°20%
Canadian model (GEM)68°56°14%
The average68°56°24%

Friday, November 13

High 65°   Low 54°   Rain 93%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 21 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 79% against a group average of 93%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service67°53°96%
US model (GFS)65°54°79%
European model (ECMWF)65°56°100%
German model (ICON)66°56°90%
Canadian model (GEM)62°54°100%
The average65°54°93%

Saturday, November 14

High 67°   Low 48°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 12 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service68°50°1%
US model (GFS)66°51°2%
European model (ECMWF)67°44°8%
German model (ICON)68°48°0%
Canadian model (GEM)64°48°12%
The average67°48°5%

Sunday, November 15

High 66°   Low 49°   Rain 39%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 73 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 77% against a group average of 39%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service67°54°77%
US model (GFS)65°51°38%
European model (ECMWF)67°46°39%
German model (ICON)67°48°38%
Canadian model (GEM)65°47°4%
The average66°49°39%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.