Minority Report

San Marcos, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Hays County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 77°   Low 55°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—52°0%
US model (GFS)79°57°0%
European model (ECMWF)77°57°0%
German model (ICON)76°55°0%
Canadian model (GEM)77°54°0%
The average77°55°0%

Friday, November 13

High 78°   Low 53°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service76°51°0%
US model (GFS)78°53°0%
European model (ECMWF)79°56°0%
German model (ICON)77°50°0%
Canadian model (GEM)79°53°0%
The average78°53°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 69°   Low 52°   Rain 65%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 12°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 91% against a group average of 65%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service68°55°60%
US model (GFS)65°52°49%
European model (ECMWF)70°52°91%
German model (ICON)65°54°74%
Canadian model (GEM)77°49°51%
The average69°52°65%

Sunday, November 15

High 69°   Low 54°   Rain 78%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 37 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 57% against a group average of 78%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service67°51°77%
US model (GFS)73°58°57%
European model (ECMWF)66°53°94%
German model (ICON)71°55°78%
Canadian model (GEM)69°54°86%
The average69°54°78%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.