Minority Report

Sandusky, OH — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Erie County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 52°   Low 42°   Rain 85%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 65 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 35% against a group average of 85%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—39°35%
US model (GFS)51°42°89%
European model (ECMWF)51°43°100%
German model (ICON)51°43°100%
Canadian model (GEM)54°45°100%
The average52°42°85%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 38°   Rain 75%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 71 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 75%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°36°63%
US model (GFS)42°38°29%
European model (ECMWF)43°37°100%
German model (ICON)43°39°98%
Canadian model (GEM)45°41°85%
The average43°38°75%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 36°   Rain 21%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 37 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 41% against a group average of 21%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°37°13%
US model (GFS)44°38°4%
European model (ECMWF)44°31°34%
German model (ICON)45°34°15%
Canadian model (GEM)42°39°41%
The average44°36°21%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 38°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°39°2%
US model (GFS)45°42°2%
European model (ECMWF)44°39°8%
German model (ICON)47°35°3%
Canadian model (GEM)44°32°10%
The average45°38°5%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.