Minority Report

Santa Ana, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Orange County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 79°   Low 58°   Rain 26%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 61 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 67% against a group average of 26%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service81°59°67%
US model (GFS)79°58°35%
European model (ECMWF)79°64°6%
German model (ICON)77°56°8%
Canadian model (GEM)78°52°16%
The average79°58°26%

Friday, November 13

High 69°   Low 60°   Rain 75%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 40 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 97% against a group average of 75%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service72°58°72%
US model (GFS)71°62°57%
European model (ECMWF)68°59°97%
German model (ICON)68°61°58%
Canadian model (GEM)66°58°93%
The average69°60°75%

Saturday, November 14

High 70°   Low 55°   Rain 59%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 67 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 59%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service72°53°33%
US model (GFS)70°61°59%
European model (ECMWF)71°58°100%
German model (ICON)72°58°38%
Canadian model (GEM)67°47°66%
The average70°55°59%

Sunday, November 15

High 72°   Low 54°   Rain 16%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 37 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 38% against a group average of 16%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service73°55°38%
US model (GFS)72°64°26%
European model (ECMWF)71°56°3%
German model (ICON)72°54°1%
Canadian model (GEM)70°44°14%
The average72°54°16%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.