Minority Report

Santa Rosa, NM — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Guadalupe County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 71°   Low 36°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°0%
US model (GFS)69°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)72°41°0%
German model (ICON)70°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)72°29°0%
The average71°36°0%

Friday, November 13

High 66°   Low 37°   Rain 24%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 38 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 43% against a group average of 24%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°45°43%
US model (GFS)66°37°13%
European model (ECMWF)68°40°39%
German model (ICON)65°36°20%
Canadian model (GEM)66°28°5%
The average66°37°24%

Saturday, November 14

High 62°   Low 42°   Rain 59%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 48 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 88% against a group average of 59%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°39°43%
US model (GFS)61°39°40%
European model (ECMWF)62°46°88%
German model (ICON)60°45°65%
Canadian model (GEM)63°44°57%
The average62°42°59%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 39°   Rain 2%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°36°0%
US model (GFS)59°44°1%
European model (ECMWF)52°40°4%
German model (ICON)59°42°5%
Canadian model (GEM)54°33°0%
The average56°39°2%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.