Minority Report

Shelbyville, KY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Shelby County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 41°   Rain 62%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 80 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 16% against a group average of 62%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—39°16%
US model (GFS)55°42°45%
European model (ECMWF)54°43°96%
German model (ICON)54°42°60%
Canadian model (GEM)55°41°91%
The average55°41°62%

Friday, November 13

High 45°   Low 34°   Rain 54%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 54 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 83% against a group average of 54%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°29°52%
US model (GFS)45°33°29%
European model (ECMWF)45°37°83%
German model (ICON)46°36°48%
Canadian model (GEM)45°34°57%
The average45°34°54%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 29°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°27°0%
US model (GFS)48°31°2%
European model (ECMWF)46°31°0%
German model (ICON)45°31°3%
Canadian model (GEM)45°26°1%
The average46°29°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 50°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°29°0%
US model (GFS)52°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°35°0%
German model (ICON)52°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°20°0%
The average50°31°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.