Minority Report

Shoshone, ID — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lincoln County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 61°   Low 40°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—39°1%
US model (GFS)63°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)62°43°0%
German model (ICON)62°40°0%
Canadian model (GEM)58°38°0%
The average61°40°0%

Friday, November 13

High 63°   Low 41°   Rain 80%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 69 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 26% against a group average of 80%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°40°93%
US model (GFS)63°40°26%
European model (ECMWF)64°43°92%
German model (ICON)65°42°93%
Canadian model (GEM)60°38°95%
The average63°41°80%

Saturday, November 14

High 50°   Low 35°   Rain 81%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 67 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 33% against a group average of 81%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°30°33%
US model (GFS)51°38°90%
European model (ECMWF)50°37°100%
German model (ICON)51°38°85%
Canadian model (GEM)50°29°99%
The average50°35°81%

Sunday, November 15

High 53°   Low 34°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°35°6%
US model (GFS)53°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°36°0%
German model (ICON)56°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°28°0%
The average53°34°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.