Minority Report

Silverton, CO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of San Juan County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 53°   Low 23°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—21°0%
US model (GFS)49°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°13°0%
German model (ICON)52°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)58°20°0%
The average53°23°0%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 25°   Rain 52%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 77 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 96% against a group average of 52%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°26°96%
US model (GFS)42°30°20%
European model (ECMWF)42°15°80%
German model (ICON)43°33°45%
Canadian model (GEM)46°18°19%
The average44°25°52%

Saturday, November 14

High 37°   Low 24°   Rain 98%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°19°96%
US model (GFS)35°20°94%
European model (ECMWF)36°27°100%
German model (ICON)36°31°98%
Canadian model (GEM)38°22°100%
The average37°24°98%

Sunday, November 15

High 44°   Low 16°   Rain 6%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 26 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 26% against a group average of 6%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°17°0%
US model (GFS)40°17°2%
European model (ECMWF)44°6°2%
German model (ICON)42°26°1%
Canadian model (GEM)48°16°26%
The average44°16°6%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.