Minority Report

Smithland, KY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Livingston County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 58°   Low 37°   Rain 15%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 55 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 55% against a group average of 15%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°1%
US model (GFS)57°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)59°40°55%
German model (ICON)59°37°18%
Canadian model (GEM)59°39°0%
The average58°37°15%

Friday, November 13

High 47°   Low 33°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°28°5%
US model (GFS)44°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°37°0%
German model (ICON)50°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°35°0%
The average47°33°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 51°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°27°0%
US model (GFS)51°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°33°0%
German model (ICON)52°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°31°0%
The average51°30°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°30°1%
US model (GFS)55°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)53°34°0%
German model (ICON)56°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°28°0%
The average54°31°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.