Minority Report

Soda Springs, ID — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Caribou County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 58°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°0%
US model (GFS)59°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)60°30°0%
German model (ICON)60°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°30°0%
The average58°30°0%

Friday, November 13

High 55°   Low 35°   Rain 35%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 78 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 90% against a group average of 35%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°33°90%
US model (GFS)55°34°20%
European model (ECMWF)55°39°12%
German model (ICON)56°35°13%
Canadian model (GEM)53°32°38%
The average55°35°35%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 30°   Rain 78%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 35 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 55% against a group average of 78%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°24°90%
US model (GFS)43°27°77%
European model (ECMWF)44°38°55%
German model (ICON)43°30°80%
Canadian model (GEM)43°30°90%
The average43°30°78%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°27°0%
US model (GFS)42°26°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°31°0%
German model (ICON)47°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°26°0%
The average46°28°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.