Sonora, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Tuolumne County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 75° Low 52° Rain 5%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 16 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 52° | 16% |
| US model (GFS) | 77° | 56° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 73° | 48° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 75° | 51° | 3% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 76° | 53° | 2% |
| The average | 75° | 52° | 5% |
High 59° Low 46° Rain 100%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 58° | 42° | 99% |
| US model (GFS) | 58° | 48° | 100% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 59° | 47° | 100% |
| German model (ICON) | 60° | 45° | 100% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 58° | 47° | 100% |
| The average | 59° | 46° | 100% |
High 59° Low 42° Rain 22%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 44 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 59° | 43° | 2% |
| US model (GFS) | 59° | 45° | 5% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 59° | 40° | 39% |
| German model (ICON) | 59° | 41° | 20% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 58° | 43° | 46% |
| The average | 59° | 42° | 22% |
High 61° Low 44° Rain 69%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 41 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 60° | 46° | 79% |
| US model (GFS) | 62° | 46° | 70% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 59° | 42° | 79% |
| German model (ICON) | 62° | 43° | 79% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 62° | 45° | 38% |
| The average | 61° | 44° | 69% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.