Minority Report

Sonora, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Sutton County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 71°   Low 50°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—49°0%
US model (GFS)70°48°0%
European model (ECMWF)71°52°0%
German model (ICON)71°53°0%
Canadian model (GEM)74°49°0%
The average71°50°0%

Friday, November 13

High 70°   Low 50°   Rain 6%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 27% against a group average of 6%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service71°51°27%
US model (GFS)67°50°2%
European model (ECMWF)70°50°0%
German model (ICON)70°53°0%
Canadian model (GEM)73°47°0%
The average70°50°6%

Saturday, November 14

High 66°   Low 54°   Rain 57%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 80% against a group average of 57%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°55°42%
US model (GFS)62°50°38%
European model (ECMWF)67°54°78%
German model (ICON)64°56°80%
Canadian model (GEM)72°55°48%
The average66°54°57%

Sunday, November 15

High 70°   Low 51°   Rain 39%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 51 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 12% against a group average of 39%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°46°12%
US model (GFS)72°55°27%
European model (ECMWF)69°52°63%
German model (ICON)71°53°53%
Canadian model (GEM)72°49°40%
The average70°51°39%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.