South Bend, IN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of St. Joseph County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 48° Low 36° Rain 50%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 37 points, 3 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 31° | 47% |
| US model (GFS) | 48° | 39° | 29% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 49° | 39° | 57% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 48° | 37° | 66% |
| The average | 48° | 36° | 50% |
High 43° Low 30° Rain 32%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 27 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 44° | 28° | 28% |
| US model (GFS) | 42° | 31° | 20% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 43° | 31° | 47% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 42° | 31° | 35% |
| The average | 43° | 30° | 32% |
High 44° Low 31° Rain 38%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 30 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 46° | 34° | 54% |
| US model (GFS) | 42° | 31° | 33% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 45° | 29° | 42% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 42° | 28° | 24% |
| The average | 44° | 31° | 38% |
High 47° Low 35° Rain 22%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 29 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 48° | 31° | 35% |
| US model (GFS) | 46° | 38° | 17% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 47° | 40° | 6% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 46° | 30° | 29% |
| The average | 47° | 35° | 22% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.