Minority Report

Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Southeast Fairbanks Census Area.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 21°   Low 11°   Rain 4%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service18°3°3%
US model (GFS)21°10°0%
European model (ECMWF)20°13°6%
German model (ICON)25°18°8%
Canadian model (GEM)22°13°5%
The average21°11°4%

Friday, November 13

High 20°   Low 14°   Rain 18%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 28 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 33% against a group average of 18%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service17°9°28%
US model (GFS)19°14°8%
European model (ECMWF)17°10°5%
German model (ICON)25°20°15%
Canadian model (GEM)22°15°33%
The average20°14°18%

Saturday, November 14

High 21°   Low 14°   Rain 41%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 76 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 86% against a group average of 41%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service19°8°22%
US model (GFS)19°5°10%
European model (ECMWF)21°17°39%
German model (ICON)25°22°48%
Canadian model (GEM)20°17°86%
The average21°14°41%

Sunday, November 15

High 22°   Low 15°   Rain 15%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 17°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 15%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service20°11°18%
US model (GFS)14°6°0%
European model (ECMWF)23°17°22%
German model (ICON)31°25°15%
Canadian model (GEM)23°17°19%
The average22°15°15%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.