Minority Report

Sparta, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Alleghany County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 52°   Low 37°   Rain 32%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 0°, rain spread 44 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 55% against a group average of 32%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—35°11%
US model (GFS)52°36°35%
European model (ECMWF)52°39°55%
German model (ICON)52°39°40%
Canadian model (GEM)52°38°21%
The average52°37°32%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 32°   Rain 10%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 22% against a group average of 10%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°31°22%
US model (GFS)39°30°17%
European model (ECMWF)41°33°6%
German model (ICON)42°33°5%
Canadian model (GEM)42°31°0%
The average41°32°10%

Saturday, November 14

High 37°   Low 29°   Rain 4%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service37°28°13%
US model (GFS)37°26°7%
European model (ECMWF)38°30°2%
German model (ICON)37°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)39°28°0%
The average37°29°4%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°28°0%
US model (GFS)41°25°0%
European model (ECMWF)41°30°0%
German model (ICON)45°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°28°0%
The average43°28°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.