Minority Report

Sparta, WI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Monroe County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 41°   Low 30°   Rain 11%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 28 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 28% against a group average of 11%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—23°11%
US model (GFS)40°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)40°34°10%
German model (ICON)42°31°28%
Canadian model (GEM)41°30°6%
The average41°30°11%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°21°1%
US model (GFS)39°30°1%
European model (ECMWF)39°27°0%
German model (ICON)41°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°22°0%
The average40°25°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 24°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°23°0%
US model (GFS)43°30°1%
European model (ECMWF)42°26°0%
German model (ICON)43°24°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°18°0%
The average43°24°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 23°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°23°0%
US model (GFS)48°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°26°0%
German model (ICON)48°22°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°12°0%
The average47°23°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.