Minority Report

Spencer, IA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Clay County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 40°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—21°0%
US model (GFS)40°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)40°31°0%
German model (ICON)39°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°24°0%
The average40°27°0%

Friday, November 13

High 39°   Low 23°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°19°0%
US model (GFS)37°27°0%
European model (ECMWF)40°26°0%
German model (ICON)37°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)40°19°0%
The average39°23°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 22°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°23°0%
US model (GFS)44°25°0%
European model (ECMWF)43°25°0%
German model (ICON)43°22°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°14°0%
The average43°22°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°28°0%
US model (GFS)47°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°27°0%
German model (ICON)50°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°15°0%
The average46°26°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.