Minority Report

Spencer, WV — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Roane County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 52°   Low 41°   Rain 91%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 36 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 64% against a group average of 91%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°64%
US model (GFS)52°43°89%
European model (ECMWF)52°45°100%
German model (ICON)53°43°100%
Canadian model (GEM)51°44°100%
The average52°41°91%

Friday, November 13

High 47°   Low 35°   Rain 67%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 72 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 22% against a group average of 67%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°28°22%
US model (GFS)44°36°65%
European model (ECMWF)48°38°94%
German model (ICON)46°36°70%
Canadian model (GEM)48°38°84%
The average47°35°67%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 33°   Rain 11%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 11%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°28°2%
US model (GFS)44°34°9%
European model (ECMWF)47°35°10%
German model (ICON)45°33°10%
Canadian model (GEM)44°33°24%
The average45°33°11%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 34°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°27°0%
US model (GFS)46°39°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°38°4%
German model (ICON)48°32°3%
Canadian model (GEM)44°32°0%
The average46°34°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.