Minority Report

Springfield, OH — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Clark County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 52°   Low 40°   Rain 91%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 24 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 76% against a group average of 91%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—37°86%
US model (GFS)52°41°76%
European model (ECMWF)53°41°100%
German model (ICON)52°41°93%
Canadian model (GEM)52°40°100%
The average52°40°91%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 33°   Rain 65%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 69 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 65%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°28°31%
US model (GFS)41°34°51%
European model (ECMWF)42°35°100%
German model (ICON)42°34°58%
Canadian model (GEM)41°35°86%
The average42°33°65%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 30°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°34°2%
US model (GFS)42°31°3%
European model (ECMWF)43°30°0%
German model (ICON)43°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°25°1%
The average43°30°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°32°0%
US model (GFS)46°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)44°34°2%
German model (ICON)48°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°31°0%
The average45°34°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.