Minority Report

Standish, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Arenac County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 46°   Low 34°   Rain 70%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 80 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 18% against a group average of 70%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°18%
US model (GFS)46°34°51%
European model (ECMWF)47°35°97%
German model (ICON)45°36°98%
Canadian model (GEM)45°35°86%
The average46°34°70%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 32°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 16 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 16% against a group average of 6%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°28°16%
US model (GFS)40°34°9%
European model (ECMWF)42°33°5%
German model (ICON)41°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)39°33°0%
The average41°32°6%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 32°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°28°8%
US model (GFS)44°33°2%
European model (ECMWF)44°35°2%
German model (ICON)46°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°33°0%
The average44°32°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 32°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°26°0%
US model (GFS)45°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°32°4%
German model (ICON)45°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°28°0%
The average45°32°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.