Minority Report

Star City, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lincoln County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 70°   Low 47°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°0%
US model (GFS)71°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)69°51°0%
German model (ICON)69°47°0%
Canadian model (GEM)69°52°0%
The average70°47°0%

Friday, November 13

High 55°   Low 36°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°32°0%
US model (GFS)54°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)53°40°0%
German model (ICON)54°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)56°37°0%
The average55°36°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°35°1%
US model (GFS)56°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°36°0%
German model (ICON)54°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°31°0%
The average54°32°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 38°   Rain 29%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 48% against a group average of 29%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°38°21%
US model (GFS)59°39°21%
European model (ECMWF)55°39°35%
German model (ICON)57°38°48%
Canadian model (GEM)56°37°19%
The average56°38°29%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.