Minority Report

Stephenville, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Erath County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 76°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—47°0%
US model (GFS)77°47°0%
European model (ECMWF)76°53°0%
German model (ICON)75°50°0%
Canadian model (GEM)75°49°0%
The average76°49°0%

Friday, November 13

High 69°   Low 48°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service68°45°0%
US model (GFS)71°50°0%
European model (ECMWF)68°50°0%
German model (ICON)67°48°0%
Canadian model (GEM)70°47°0%
The average69°48°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 61°   Low 47°   Rain 67%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 61 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 32% against a group average of 67%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°47°75%
US model (GFS)63°46°45%
European model (ECMWF)61°48°93%
German model (ICON)55°48°90%
Canadian model (GEM)65°47°32%
The average61°47°67%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 45°   Rain 88%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 11°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 69% against a group average of 88%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°43°82%
US model (GFS)61°46°69%
European model (ECMWF)57°46°98%
German model (ICON)50°46°96%
Canadian model (GEM)57°44°93%
The average56°45°88%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.