Minority Report

Stillwater, MN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Washington County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 39°   Low 29°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 25 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 25% against a group average of 7%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—23°0%
US model (GFS)39°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)39°33°12%
German model (ICON)40°30°25%
Canadian model (GEM)39°27°0%
The average39°29°7%

Friday, November 13

High 38°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°22°0%
US model (GFS)35°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)40°28°0%
German model (ICON)38°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)39°21°0%
The average38°26°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°24°0%
US model (GFS)44°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)41°28°0%
German model (ICON)42°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)40°19°0%
The average42°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°28°0%
US model (GFS)48°29°1%
European model (ECMWF)46°29°0%
German model (ICON)48°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°16°0%
The average46°26°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.