Minority Report

Stilwell, OK — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Adair County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 63°   Low 40°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°0%
US model (GFS)64°43°0%
European model (ECMWF)63°43°0%
German model (ICON)62°39°0%
Canadian model (GEM)62°44°0%
The average63°40°0%

Friday, November 13

High 51°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°30°0%
US model (GFS)50°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°35°0%
German model (ICON)51°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°35°0%
The average51°32°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 52°   Low 30°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°34°9%
US model (GFS)53°26°1%
European model (ECMWF)52°35°2%
German model (ICON)54°23°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°32°0%
The average52°30°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 39°   Rain 43%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 28 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 62% against a group average of 43%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°35°34%
US model (GFS)51°41°38%
European model (ECMWF)47°41°45%
German model (ICON)46°41°34%
Canadian model (GEM)44°39°62%
The average47°39°43%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.