Minority Report

Stockton, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of San Joaquin County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 75°   Low 46°   Rain 5%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 9°, rain spread 15 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 15% against a group average of 5%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—54°15%
US model (GFS)70°45°2%
European model (ECMWF)77°50°0%
German model (ICON)79°43°8%
Canadian model (GEM)75°39°0%
The average75°46°5%

Friday, November 13

High 62°   Low 50°   Rain 99%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°48°96%
US model (GFS)63°51°98%
European model (ECMWF)60°51°100%
German model (ICON)64°50°100%
Canadian model (GEM)62°48°100%
The average62°50°99%

Saturday, November 14

High 64°   Low 48°   Rain 10%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 27% against a group average of 10%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°48°1%
US model (GFS)64°50°27%
European model (ECMWF)63°46°0%
German model (ICON)64°47°3%
Canadian model (GEM)66°46°19%
The average64°48°10%

Sunday, November 15

High 66°   Low 49°   Rain 87%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 23 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 99% against a group average of 87%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°50°88%
US model (GFS)67°54°81%
European model (ECMWF)67°49°90%
German model (ICON)62°48°99%
Canadian model (GEM)67°44°76%
The average66°49°87%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.