Minority Report

Stuart, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Patrick County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 62°   Low 42°   Rain 32%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 57 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 2% against a group average of 32%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—40°2%
US model (GFS)63°40°23%
European model (ECMWF)61°44°59%
German model (ICON)62°45°48%
Canadian model (GEM)64°42°29%
The average62°42°32%

Friday, November 13

High 51°   Low 38°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°34°2%
US model (GFS)49°35°5%
European model (ECMWF)50°41°2%
German model (ICON)51°39°3%
Canadian model (GEM)53°39°0%
The average51°38°2%

Saturday, November 14

High 47°   Low 34°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°31°0%
US model (GFS)47°31°5%
European model (ECMWF)45°37°1%
German model (ICON)47°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°32°0%
The average47°34°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°31°0%
US model (GFS)50°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°34°0%
German model (ICON)53°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°32°0%
The average51°33°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.