Sturgeon Bay, WI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Door County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 41° Low 35° Rain 62%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 53 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 31° | 58% |
| US model (GFS) | 41° | 36° | 47% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 40° | 35° | 100% |
| German model (ICON) | 42° | 37° | 58% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 40° | 36° | 49% |
| The average | 41° | 35° | 62% |
High 40° Low 34° Rain 54%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 73 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 41° | 32° | 61% |
| US model (GFS) | 39° | 32° | 48% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 40° | 34° | 86% |
| German model (ICON) | 41° | 36° | 13% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 39° | 36° | 62% |
| The average | 40° | 34° | 54% |
High 43° Low 35° Rain 9%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 43° | 31° | 3% |
| US model (GFS) | 42° | 36° | 8% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 42° | 34° | 2% |
| German model (ICON) | 44° | 39° | 3% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 44° | 36° | 29% |
| The average | 43° | 35° | 9% |
High 44° Low 33° Rain 0%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 44° | 31° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 44° | 33° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 44° | 30° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 45° | 38° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 41° | 32° | 0% |
| The average | 44° | 33° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.