Minority Report

Sylva, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Jackson County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 40°   Rain 69%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 85 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 15% against a group average of 69%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°15%
US model (GFS)56°42°64%
European model (ECMWF)55°43°88%
German model (ICON)56°42°80%
Canadian model (GEM)55°41°100%
The average55°40°69%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 33°   Rain 29%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 81 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 84% against a group average of 29%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°29°28%
US model (GFS)44°34°15%
European model (ECMWF)43°36°13%
German model (ICON)45°35°3%
Canadian model (GEM)45°30°84%
The average44°33°29%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 27°   Rain 14%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 62 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 62% against a group average of 14%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°24°1%
US model (GFS)45°30°6%
European model (ECMWF)44°31°1%
German model (ICON)47°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°19°62%
The average45°27°14%

Sunday, November 15

High 53°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°28°1%
US model (GFS)54°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)53°27°0%
German model (ICON)55°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°13°0%
The average53°25°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.