Minority Report

Syracuse, NY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Onondaga County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 45°   Low 34°   Rain 98%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 9 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°91%
US model (GFS)44°35°98%
European model (ECMWF)45°35°100%
German model (ICON)46°35°100%
Canadian model (GEM)46°34°100%
The average45°34°98%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 32°   Rain 80%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 50 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 50% against a group average of 80%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°29°50%
US model (GFS)38°32°66%
European model (ECMWF)40°34°100%
German model (ICON)39°33°83%
Canadian model (GEM)40°34°100%
The average40°32°80%

Saturday, November 14

High 41°   Low 34°   Rain 88%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 21 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 88%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°32°80%
US model (GFS)41°32°79%
European model (ECMWF)42°36°100%
German model (ICON)41°34°81%
Canadian model (GEM)39°34°100%
The average41°34°88%

Sunday, November 15

High 42°   Low 36°   Rain 79%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 52% against a group average of 79%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°34°77%
US model (GFS)40°36°77%
European model (ECMWF)42°36°97%
German model (ICON)42°38°52%
Canadian model (GEM)40°35°90%
The average42°36°79%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.