Minority Report

Tampa, FL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Hillsborough County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 65°   Rain 11%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 25 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 25% against a group average of 11%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—63°21%
US model (GFS)79°66°5%
European model (ECMWF)78°66°25%
German model (ICON)78°65°0%
Canadian model (GEM)78°68°5%
The average78°65°11%

Friday, November 13

High 73°   Low 58°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 22% against a group average of 5%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service74°51°0%
US model (GFS)73°58°22%
European model (ECMWF)72°62°2%
German model (ICON)72°57°0%
Canadian model (GEM)73°63°0%
The average73°58°5%

Saturday, November 14

High 64°   Low 47°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°49°0%
US model (GFS)64°45°0%
European model (ECMWF)63°48°0%
German model (ICON)64°44°0%
Canadian model (GEM)63°50°0%
The average64°47°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 72°   Low 50°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service73°57°1%
US model (GFS)72°52°1%
European model (ECMWF)71°49°0%
German model (ICON)72°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)73°49°0%
The average72°50°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.