Minority Report

Taos, NM — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Taos County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 58°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—28°0%
US model (GFS)60°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)58°40°0%
German model (ICON)60°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°28°0%
The average58°33°0%

Friday, November 13

High 56°   Low 34°   Rain 23%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 75 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 78% against a group average of 23%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°34°78%
US model (GFS)57°41°4%
European model (ECMWF)54°40°20%
German model (ICON)56°30°3%
Canadian model (GEM)53°26°10%
The average56°34°23%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 35°   Rain 92%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 80% against a group average of 92%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°29°89%
US model (GFS)46°37°90%
European model (ECMWF)42°37°100%
German model (ICON)46°37°80%
Canadian model (GEM)43°34°100%
The average45°35°92%

Sunday, November 15

High 50°   Low 31°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 27% against a group average of 9%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°26°0%
US model (GFS)50°33°3%
European model (ECMWF)50°34°27%
German model (ICON)52°32°1%
Canadian model (GEM)48°32°15%
The average50°31°9%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.