Minority Report

Tarboro, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Edgecombe County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 71°   Low 48°   Rain 12%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 37 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 37% against a group average of 12%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—42°0%
US model (GFS)71°48°17%
European model (ECMWF)69°50°37%
German model (ICON)72°48°3%
Canadian model (GEM)72°49°5%
The average71°48°12%

Friday, November 13

High 59°   Low 41°   Rain 17%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°33°21%
US model (GFS)58°45°15%
European model (ECMWF)57°44°25%
German model (ICON)59°40°13%
Canadian model (GEM)60°42°10%
The average59°41°17%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 35°   Rain 4%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 14% against a group average of 4%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°32°0%
US model (GFS)54°36°2%
European model (ECMWF)53°38°14%
German model (ICON)54°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°37°3%
The average54°35°4%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°32°0%
US model (GFS)55°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)56°36°0%
German model (ICON)58°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°29°0%
The average56°32°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.