Tawas City, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Iosco County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 46° Low 36° Rain 79%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 46 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 33° | 71% |
| US model (GFS) | 47° | 35° | 54% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 44° | 37° | 100% |
| German model (ICON) | 46° | 37° | 100% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 46° | 36° | 72% |
| The average | 46° | 36° | 79% |
High 40° Low 33° Rain 35%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 75 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 41° | 31° | 75% |
| US model (GFS) | 40° | 34° | 31% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 42° | 33° | 14% |
| German model (ICON) | 40° | 34° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 39° | 34° | 57% |
| The average | 40° | 33° | 35% |
High 44° Low 35° Rain 6%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 45° | 30° | 6% |
| US model (GFS) | 44° | 35° | 10% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 43° | 36° | 4% |
| German model (ICON) | 44° | 35° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 42° | 37° | 10% |
| The average | 44° | 35° | 6% |
High 44° Low 33° Rain 0%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 45° | 31° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 44° | 36° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 43° | 32° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 44° | 37° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 43° | 29° | 0% |
| The average | 44° | 33° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.