Minority Report

Telluride, CO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of San Miguel County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 53°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—24°0%
US model (GFS)53°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)53°32°0%
German model (ICON)52°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°35°0%
The average53°33°0%

Friday, November 13

High 48°   Low 32°   Rain 35%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 75 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 89% against a group average of 35%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°28°89%
US model (GFS)48°35°14%
European model (ECMWF)46°28°31%
German model (ICON)50°36°15%
Canadian model (GEM)48°34°24%
The average48°32°35%

Saturday, November 14

High 40°   Low 27°   Rain 97%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°21°99%
US model (GFS)41°24°89%
European model (ECMWF)39°28°100%
German model (ICON)39°33°98%
Canadian model (GEM)38°30°100%
The average40°27°97%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 22°   Rain 18%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 49 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 49% against a group average of 18%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°23°0%
US model (GFS)41°22°7%
European model (ECMWF)44°14°13%
German model (ICON)40°31°20%
Canadian model (GEM)46°22°49%
The average43°22°18%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.