Minority Report

Texarkana, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Miller County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 73°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—44°1%
US model (GFS)74°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)72°52°0%
German model (ICON)73°51°0%
Canadian model (GEM)74°51°0%
The average73°49°0%

Friday, November 13

High 59°   Low 42°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°39°1%
US model (GFS)59°44°0%
European model (ECMWF)57°44°0%
German model (ICON)58°41°0%
Canadian model (GEM)61°41°0%
The average59°42°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 57°   Low 38°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 12 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°42°12%
US model (GFS)59°37°1%
European model (ECMWF)56°39°5%
German model (ICON)58°36°5%
Canadian model (GEM)57°38°0%
The average57°38°5%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 43°   Rain 70%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 54% against a group average of 70%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°42°69%
US model (GFS)55°41°54%
European model (ECMWF)48°44°83%
German model (ICON)46°42°73%
Canadian model (GEM)52°46°71%
The average51°43°70%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.