Minority Report

The Bronx, NY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Bronx County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 59°   Low 48°   Rain 96%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 11 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—44°89%
US model (GFS)58°47°91%
European model (ECMWF)59°50°100%
German model (ICON)59°49°98%
Canadian model (GEM)59°48°100%
The average59°48°96%

Friday, November 13

High 48°   Low 37°   Rain 96%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 18 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 82% against a group average of 96%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°37°97%
US model (GFS)47°37°82%
European model (ECMWF)50°37°99%
German model (ICON)49°37°100%
Canadian model (GEM)48°38°100%
The average48°37°96%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 36°   Rain 12%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 35 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 35% against a group average of 12%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°38°0%
US model (GFS)45°34°3%
European model (ECMWF)45°35°4%
German model (ICON)46°38°35%
Canadian model (GEM)44°36°19%
The average46°36°12%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°38°0%
US model (GFS)47°40°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°37°2%
German model (ICON)49°39°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°33°0%
The average48°37°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.