Minority Report

Tilden, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of McMullen County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 77°   Low 55°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—50°0%
US model (GFS)76°57°0%
European model (ECMWF)77°59°0%
German model (ICON)78°59°0%
Canadian model (GEM)76°52°0%
The average77°55°0%

Friday, November 13

High 76°   Low 51°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 12 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service76°53°12%
US model (GFS)74°54°0%
European model (ECMWF)76°54°0%
German model (ICON)76°51°0%
Canadian model (GEM)77°43°0%
The average76°51°2%

Saturday, November 14

High 75°   Low 58°   Rain 47%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 36 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 67% against a group average of 47%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service73°61°31%
US model (GFS)74°58°33%
European model (ECMWF)75°59°61%
German model (ICON)74°58°67%
Canadian model (GEM)81°54°41%
The average75°58°47%

Sunday, November 15

High 78°   Low 61°   Rain 54%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 52 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 81% against a group average of 54%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service76°55°49%
US model (GFS)80°65°29%
European model (ECMWF)76°58°81%
German model (ICON)76°61°48%
Canadian model (GEM)82°64°62%
The average78°61°54%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.