Minority Report

Toa Baja Municipio, PR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Toa Baja Municipio.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 92°   Low 75°   Rain 42%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 81 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 42%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—78°20%
US model (GFS)93°76°81%
European model (ECMWF)89°76°73%
German model (ICON)93°75°35%
Canadian model (GEM)92°72°0%
The average92°75°42%

Friday, November 13

High 92°   Low 78°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 20% against a group average of 6%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service92°78°20%
US model (GFS)93°77°0%
European model (ECMWF)89°80°6%
German model (ICON)93°80°5%
Canadian model (GEM)92°76°0%
The average92°78°6%

Saturday, November 14

High 93°   Low 79°   Rain 21%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 61 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 61% against a group average of 21%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service91°77°30%
US model (GFS)94°79°0%
European model (ECMWF)91°80°61%
German model (ICON)94°82°13%
Canadian model (GEM)94°77°0%
The average93°79°21%

Sunday, November 15

High 91°   Low 76°   Rain 2%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service89°77°1%
US model (GFS)93°76°3%
European model (ECMWF)86°79°4%
German model (ICON)94°77°0%
Canadian model (GEM)93°73°0%
The average91°76°2%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.