Minority Report

Toledo, IA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Tama County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 43°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—24°0%
US model (GFS)44°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)42°36°0%
German model (ICON)42°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°30°0%
The average43°31°0%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°21°0%
US model (GFS)39°24°0%
European model (ECMWF)40°28°0%
German model (ICON)40°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)40°23°0%
The average40°25°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 23°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°23°0%
US model (GFS)44°22°0%
European model (ECMWF)43°25°0%
German model (ICON)44°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°18°0%
The average44°23°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°25°0%
US model (GFS)47°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°27°0%
German model (ICON)48°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°15°0%
The average47°25°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.