Minority Report

Tonopah, NV — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Nye County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 59°   Low 35°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°1%
US model (GFS)60°41°0%
European model (ECMWF)59°35°0%
German model (ICON)59°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)59°27°0%
The average59°35°0%

Friday, November 13

High 53°   Low 36°   Rain 76%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 34 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 97% against a group average of 76%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°35°75%
US model (GFS)53°35°63%
European model (ECMWF)55°38°97%
German model (ICON)54°39°73%
Canadian model (GEM)51°35°71%
The average53°36°76%

Saturday, November 14

High 48°   Low 31°   Rain 56%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 87 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 56%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°34°0%
US model (GFS)45°32°45%
European model (ECMWF)48°33°87%
German model (ICON)48°31°68%
Canadian model (GEM)49°27°82%
The average48°31°56%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 34°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°37°6%
US model (GFS)48°38°1%
European model (ECMWF)53°32°0%
German model (ICON)52°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°26°3%
The average51°34°2%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.