Minority Report

Toulon, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Stark County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 44°   Low 33°   Rain 12%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 28 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 12%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°2%
US model (GFS)43°33°1%
European model (ECMWF)45°37°14%
Canadian model (GEM)44°32°29%
The average44°33°12%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°24°1%
US model (GFS)41°26°1%
European model (ECMWF)41°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°28°0%
The average42°27°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°26°0%
US model (GFS)44°25°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°22°0%
The average44°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°27°0%
US model (GFS)49°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°18°0%
The average48°26°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.