Minority Report

Trenton, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Jones County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 74°   Low 49°   Rain 16%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 0°, rain spread 34 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 34% against a group average of 16%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—43°12%
US model (GFS)74°49°34%
European model (ECMWF)74°52°29%
German model (ICON)74°50°3%
Canadian model (GEM)74°51°0%
The average74°49°16%

Friday, November 13

High 60°   Low 42°   Rain 8%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 16 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 20% against a group average of 8%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°36°20%
US model (GFS)59°44°4%
European model (ECMWF)59°47°4%
German model (ICON)61°41°8%
Canadian model (GEM)61°43°6%
The average60°42°8%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 36°   Rain 4%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°32°0%
US model (GFS)54°37°6%
European model (ECMWF)54°39°4%
German model (ICON)54°32°5%
Canadian model (GEM)54°37°6%
The average54°36°4%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°33°0%
US model (GFS)54°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)56°36°0%
German model (ICON)58°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°31°0%
The average56°32°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.