Minority Report

Truth or Consequences, NM — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Sierra County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 69°   Low 40°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—44°0%
US model (GFS)69°41°0%
European model (ECMWF)69°45°0%
German model (ICON)69°40°0%
Canadian model (GEM)70°30°0%
The average69°40°0%

Friday, November 13

High 64°   Low 40°   Rain 48%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 57 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 84% against a group average of 48%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°46°42%
US model (GFS)66°42°33%
European model (ECMWF)66°46°84%
German model (ICON)62°39°53%
Canadian model (GEM)60°28°27%
The average64°40°48%

Saturday, November 14

High 65°   Low 41°   Rain 14%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 37 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 39% against a group average of 14%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°43°2%
US model (GFS)63°45°3%
European model (ECMWF)66°45°39%
German model (ICON)65°43°5%
Canadian model (GEM)66°30°21%
The average65°41°14%

Sunday, November 15

High 63°   Low 39°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°41°0%
US model (GFS)62°48°0%
European model (ECMWF)62°43°0%
German model (ICON)64°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)62°27°0%
The average63°39°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.