Minority Report

Tucson, AZ — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Pima County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 80°   Low 56°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—56°1%
US model (GFS)81°57°1%
European model (ECMWF)81°55°0%
German model (ICON)79°59°0%
Canadian model (GEM)79°53°0%
The average80°56°0%

Friday, November 13

High 74°   Low 54°   Rain 59%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 69 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 98% against a group average of 59%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service74°52°58%
US model (GFS)77°54°71%
European model (ECMWF)72°56°98%
German model (ICON)72°57°38%
Canadian model (GEM)73°50°29%
The average74°54°59%

Saturday, November 14

High 68°   Low 52°   Rain 12%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 33% against a group average of 12%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service70°51°7%
US model (GFS)67°52°8%
European model (ECMWF)68°51°33%
German model (ICON)69°54°8%
Canadian model (GEM)68°52°6%
The average68°52°12%

Sunday, November 15

High 70°   Low 53°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service72°51°0%
US model (GFS)69°61°2%
European model (ECMWF)71°53°8%
German model (ICON)70°54°5%
Canadian model (GEM)69°44°0%
The average70°53°3%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.