Minority Report

Tyler, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Smith County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 76°   Low 50°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—48°1%
US model (GFS)77°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)75°53°0%
German model (ICON)75°51°0%
Canadian model (GEM)76°51°0%
The average76°50°0%

Friday, November 13

High 67°   Low 48°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service67°44°1%
US model (GFS)66°50°0%
European model (ECMWF)65°50°0%
German model (ICON)64°45°0%
Canadian model (GEM)70°50°0%
The average67°48°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 61°   Low 44°   Rain 19%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 31 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 3% against a group average of 19%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°46°34%
US model (GFS)62°43°6%
European model (ECMWF)61°45°27%
German model (ICON)59°41°24%
Canadian model (GEM)63°47°3%
The average61°44°19%

Sunday, November 15

High 53°   Low 44°   Rain 87%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 73% against a group average of 87%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°45°85%
US model (GFS)53°44°73%
European model (ECMWF)52°44°97%
German model (ICON)51°44°91%
Canadian model (GEM)52°43°90%
The average53°44°87%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.