Minority Report

Ukiah, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Mendocino County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 70°   Low 47°   Rain 43%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 88 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 43%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service71°50°100%
US model (GFS)71°40°12%
European model (ECMWF)71°44°31%
German model (ICON)68°51°15%
Canadian model (GEM)70°49°58%
The average70°47°43%

Friday, November 13

High 58°   Low 48°   Rain 100%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°44°100%
US model (GFS)56°47°100%
European model (ECMWF)58°47°100%
German model (ICON)58°49°100%
Canadian model (GEM)58°51°100%
The average58°48°100%

Saturday, November 14

High 60°   Low 46°   Rain 46%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 76 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 94% against a group average of 46%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°45°94%
US model (GFS)60°46°34%
European model (ECMWF)61°45°38%
German model (ICON)59°45°18%
Canadian model (GEM)59°51°48%
The average60°46°46%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 46°   Rain 97%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°40°100%
US model (GFS)53°48°93%
European model (ECMWF)58°46°94%
German model (ICON)56°48°100%
Canadian model (GEM)57°46°100%
The average56°46°97%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.