Minority Report

Urbana, OH — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Champaign County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 51°   Low 39°   Rain 91%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 27 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 73% against a group average of 91%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°88%
US model (GFS)51°40°73%
European model (ECMWF)53°40°100%
German model (ICON)51°40°93%
Canadian model (GEM)50°40°100%
The average51°39°91%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 33°   Rain 66%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 74 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 26% against a group average of 66%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°28°26%
US model (GFS)41°32°59%
European model (ECMWF)42°35°100%
German model (ICON)42°34°58%
Canadian model (GEM)41°34°86%
The average41°33°66%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 29°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°33°2%
US model (GFS)41°32°2%
European model (ECMWF)43°29°0%
German model (ICON)42°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)40°25°1%
The average42°29°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 44°   Low 33°   Rain 1%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°31°1%
US model (GFS)45°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)44°34°2%
German model (ICON)47°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)40°29°0%
The average44°33°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.