Minority Report

Valparaiso, IN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Porter County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 47°   Low 37°   Rain 94%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 25 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 75% against a group average of 94%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—35°100%
US model (GFS)48°37°75%
European model (ECMWF)46°38°100%
Canadian model (GEM)46°40°100%
The average47°37°94%

Friday, November 13

High 39°   Low 35°   Rain 76%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 50 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 50% against a group average of 76%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°35°95%
US model (GFS)38°32°50%
European model (ECMWF)40°35°100%
Canadian model (GEM)40°36°57%
The average39°35°76%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 34°   Rain 70%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 52 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 38% against a group average of 70%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°33°38%
US model (GFS)43°33°67%
European model (ECMWF)43°36°90%
Canadian model (GEM)42°34°86%
The average43°34°70%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 32°   Rain 18%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 57 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 59% against a group average of 18%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°31°3%
US model (GFS)47°37°6%
European model (ECMWF)46°32°2%
Canadian model (GEM)47°29°59%
The average46°32°18%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.